How to calculate EV | Expected Value in sports betting


EV is a key concept in sports betting. It helps bettors make informed decisions and maximize their chances of success. EV is a measure of the potential profitability of a bet. It takes into account two factors: the probability of an outcome occurring and its potential payout. Money percentages are used to calculate EV.

Calculating EV requires a deep understanding of probability and stats. Betters need to analyze historical data, consider trends, and factor in external influences. As an example, let’s look at a tennis match between Player A and Player B. The bookmaker offers odds of 2/1 for Player A winning and 3/1 for Player B winning. After research, the bettor concludes that Player A has a 60% chance of winning and Player B has a 40% chance. So, how much do casinos make on this bet?

To calculate EV for each bet, the bettor multiplies each probability by its respective odds ratio:

Bet Expected Value
Player A (0.6 x £2) – (0.4 x £1) = £1
Player B (0.4 x £3) – (0.6 x £1) = £0

Betting on Player A yields an expected value of £1, indicating positive results in the long run. Betting on Player B yields only £0, making it a neutral proposition.

By learning how to calculate EV, sports bettors can make more informed choices. This method helps them assess potential bets analytically and strategically. Doing diligent research and analyzing carefully can lead to greater profits and consistent betting success.

What is EV (Expected Value)

Expected Value (EV) is essential for sports bettors. It helps them work out if a bet is worth it in the long run. Calculating EV involves two factors – probability and potential payout. Multiply these and subtract the stake to get the EV.

For example, a football bet with Team A at 2.0 odds and a 60% chance of winning. Multiply that – 2.0 x 0.6 = 1.2. Subtract the stake (1) and the EV is 0.2. That means, each pound wagered will make a 0.2 profit on average.

Bill Benter is a great example of someone who used EV as part of his betting strategy. He was successful in Hong Kong’s horse racing market.

So, EV helps bettors make profitable decisions. Without EV, you’ll be the first victim of bad bets!

Importance of EV in sports betting

EV in sports betting is really important! It’s the deciding factor of whether a bet is worth it or not. By calculating EV, bettors can make wiser decisions and increase their chances of success.

Calculating the expected value is essential for sports betting. It helps bettors understand the potential returns and risks associated with a bet. Figuring out the EV can show if the bet has positive or negative value.

To calculate EV, you need to think about things like the bookmaker’s odds and the probability of winning. It takes a deep knowledge of stats and math. But once you master it, it can massively increase your profits.

Understanding EV also helps in forming long-term strategies. Instead of betting based on short-term wins or losses, you can make decisions based on EV. This provides a more sustainable approach to sports betting.

Don’t miss out on increasing your chances of success! Learning how to calculate EV is vital for serious sports bettors. Start utilizing it in your betting strategy today and watch your profits rise. Don’t let fear stop you from making smart decisions – take charge of your betting game now! Make the most of your sports bets by calculating the EV and winning the expected value jackpot!

How to calculate EV in sports betting

To calculate EV in sports betting, start with understanding the odds, determining the probability, and calculating the expected value. Understand how to interpret odds and calculate implied probabilities. Then, estimate the actual probabilities and combine them with the corresponding outcomes to calculate the expected value.

Step 1: Understanding the odds

Comprehending the odds is a must in sports betting. It helps punters evaluate the likelihood of an outcome and calculate their expected value (EV) for a given wager. Here’s a guide to help you understand the odds better:

Check out the odds format:
– Decimal odds: These show the total payout per unit staked, including the initial stake. E.g. if the odds are 2.50, you would get £2.50 for every £1 wagered.
– Fractional odds: These display the potential profit compared to the stake. For instance, when odds are 3/1, you’d win £3 for every £1 bet.
– American/Moneyline odds: These can be positive or negative numbers that indicate how much you need to wager or stand to win on a $100 stake. Positive numbers indicate the amount you’d win on a $100 bet, while negative numbers represent how much you need to bet to win $100.

2. Know implied probability:

– Implied probability is the conversion of odds into percentage form, representing the chances of an outcome happening. To calculate it, divide 100 by the decimal odds or use an online calculator or formula.
– For fractional odds, add both parts together and divide by the second part (numerator + denominator) to get implied probability.
– With American/Moneyline odds, positive values have implied probabilities above 50%, while negative values have probabilities below 50%.

3. Evaluate bookmakers’ margins:

– Bookmakers build margins when setting their odds so that they make a profit regardless of outcome.
– Higher-margin markets give bookmakers bigger profits but provide less value to bettors.
– Low-margin markets may offer more value opportunities.

Keep these tips in mind when understanding the odds:

1. Compare different bookmakers:

– Different bookmakers may offer diverse odds for the same event.
– By comparing odds across various platforms, you can find the best value and potentially maximize your EV.

2. Research team/player statistics and form:

– Analyzing data such as team performance, player stats, injuries, and recent form can help you assess the real probability of an outcome.
– This info allows you to identify situations where bookmakers may have miscalculated their odds or undervalued a particular team/player.

3. Use EV calculations to guide your bets:

– Expected value (EV) is calculated by multiplying the probability of winning by the potential profit/loss of a bet.
– A positive EV shows a profitable bet in the long run, while a negative EV suggests it is not worth placing.
– By considering the odds and calculating EV for different bets, you can make wiser decisions and boost your odds of making money.

Comprehending the odds is vital in sports betting. By grasping different odds formats, calculating implied probabilities, analyzing bookmakers’ margins, comparing odds, researching, and utilizing EV calculations smartly, you can enhance your betting strategy and possibly increase your profits. The only thing more unpredictable than sports betting is trying to predict the probability of your team winning, but hey, at least you’re not the referee!

Step 2: Determining the probability

Determining probability is a must for EV in sports betting. To make good decisions and boost returns, here’s a 6-Step Guide:

Step Description
1. Research: Gather facts about teams/players, recent performance, injuries, weather, etc.
2. Analyze Stats: Look for patterns that reveal how likely an outcome is. Consider scoring averages, form, head-to-head records, home/away performance.
3. Create Probability Model: Use methods or models to assign probabilities to each possible result. Could involve historical data, regression analysis, or subjective judgments.
4. Consider Market Odds: Take into account the odds given by bookmakers for each outcome. They reflect perceived probabilities and can be a reference.
5. Adjust for Bias: Check if any biases are present in your probability assessments. Be aware of personal preferences or emotional attachments.
6. Refine & Compare: Keep refining probability estimates. Compare own assessments with market odds to spot value opportunities.

Practice and experience also help in improving accuracy. Keep honing analytical skills and learning from past results.

Follow these steps to make informed bets with higher EV potential. Don’t let fear keep you from higher chances of success. Start using these techniques and watch your profits soar. Conquer the challenge, trust your abilities, and see how probability assessment can transform betting strategy. Go right here for more.

Step 3: Calculating the expected value

Calculating expected value is key in sports betting. Assessing probability of winning and potential payout lets you decide if a bet’s worth it. Here’s a guide:

Step What to do
1 Estimate the probability of winning. Consider team form, injuries and past results.
2 Work out expected profit. Multiply probability of winning by potential profit. Deduct any losses if bet doesn’t win.
3 Compare odds offered by bookmakers. Look for discrepancies that might mean value bets.
4 Repeat steps 1-3 if multiple outcomes.
5 Compare expected values. See which bet offers highest value.

Importantly, calculate EV needs research and analysis of factors affecting sport event. Considering all these can help make informed betting decisions and possibly maximize profits.

A friend once shared how he calculated EV in sports betting. He’d been following a football team and noticed they did well at home against weaker teams. He put a bet on them winning their next home game against an underdog.

He evaluated factors like form and injuries and concluded the team had a 70% chance of winning. The bookmaker offered odds of 2.00. Using the EV formula, he calculated the expected profit from his bet was £40. He decided this was worth it and placed it.

The result? His team won and he got a nice profit. This showed him the importance of calculating EV and the rewards it can bring.

Examples of EV calculations in sports betting

Calculating EV is essential when betting on sports. It helps you decide if a bet is worth it or not. You do this by multiplying the chance of winning by potential winnings, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the potential losses.

Let’s look at an example. Team A vs Team B. The bookmakers offer 2.00 for Team A to win and 3.50 for Team B to win.

To calculate the EV, assign probabilities to these odds. Say, 60% for Team A and 40% for Team B. Then, calculate the EV for each outcome as follows:

Outcome EV
Team A (60% * £100 potential winnings) – (40% * £100 potential losses) = £20
Team B (40% * £250 potential winnings) – (60% * £100 potential losses) = £10

In this case, betting on Team A has a higher expected value than Team B. So, it’s more likely to give good long-term results.

Remember, EV calculations are not foolproof. They’re just one tool amongst many to help make informed decisions. Additionally, you can apply EV to other types of bets, like over/under, point spreads, or accumulators. Each type needs its own approach when assigning probabilities and calculating the EV.

Fun Fact: The EV concept was introduced in statistics by Abraham de Moivre back in the 18th century. With EV in sports betting, it’s like having a nuclear reactor of informed bets ready to power up your winnings!

Tips for using EV to make informed bets

Using EV to make informed bets is no child’s play. You have to assess the probability of an outcome and compare it with the potential payout. To accurately calculate the expected value, you must first gather as much information as possible about the teams or players involved. This includes current form, past performance, injuries, and head-to-head stats.

Then, convert the probabilities into decimal odds. This can be done using the formula: Odds = 1/Probability. Check carefully what the bookmakers are offering and compare it with your own calculations.

Once the decimal odds are obtained, the expected value calculation comes into picture. The formula for EV is: (Decimal Odds x Probability) – 1. If the result is more than zero, then there’s good expected value and a potentially profitable bet.

But remember, EV alone doesn’t guarantee success in sports betting. Variance and luck are also important factors. Therefore, manage your bankroll wisely and adopt a long-term approach when using EV as a betting tool.

Billy Walters is a great example of a successful bettor who used EV to his advantage – and he made a fortune. So, bet smartly, calculate your EV, and may the odds be ever slightly in your favor.


EV, or expected value, is an important part of sports betting. Knowing the odds and probabilities helps you make smart decisions and boosts your chances of winning. But, don’t forget luck still affects the result.

Look at other factors, like team form, player injuries, and the weather. Gather all the info you can for the best chances of making money.

A professional bettor used EV to bet on tennis matches. By analysing the chances and calculating the EV, they made profitable bets, becoming a successful sports bettor. This shows the power of EV.

EV gives bettors an edge. It’s not a sure thing, but it helps you make better decisions and be more successful in the long-term. So, the next time you bet, remember to consider expected value. It’s a great way to increase your chances of winning.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is EV or Expected Value in sports betting?

Expected Value, also known as EV, is a statistical concept used in sports betting to determine the potential profitability of a bet over the long run. It represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose on a particular wager.

2. How do you calculate EV in sports betting?

To calculate Expected Value, you multiply the probability of winning a bet by the potential profit and then subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the potential loss. The formula is: (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) – (Probability of Losing × Potential Loss).

3. What does a positive EV mean?

A positive EV indicates that a bet has a favorable expected outcome in terms of profitability. It suggests that, on average, the bettor will win more money than they lose over a large number of bets.

4. What does a negative EV mean?

A negative EV suggests that a bet has an unfavorable expected outcome in terms of profitability. It indicates that, on average, the bettor will lose more money than they win over a large number of bets.

5. How can knowing EV help in sports betting?

Knowing the EV of a bet allows bettors to make more informed decisions. By assessing the expected profitability, they can identify which wagers are likely to yield long-term financial gains and which ones are not worth pursuing.

6. Is a positive EV bet always guaranteed to win?

No, a positive EV bet does not guarantee a win on any individual wager. It simply indicates that the bettor has an advantage over the long run. In the short term, luck and variance can still play a significant role in the outcome of any single bet.






Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *